Casino Observer

Well, it’s September 2 and the quest for celebrity is off and running. The World Series of Poker $10,000 buy-in no-limit hold’em main event has started and ESPN is there to record all the highlights. That means the “stars” are there to defend their reputations and the amateurs are out to make names for themselves. Whilst this epic grinds its way through to November, those dreaming of being stars next year are lining up at one of the World Series of Poker Academy events. At a mere $1,499 a head, players come to learn from the best of the players prepared to teach the finer points of the game. In fact, this weekend sees the roadshow roll into LA for the first time so there’ll be one hundred more wannabes let loose on the unsuspecting world come Monday. 

Sorry to quote the cliché from the Cincinnati Kid, “Son, all you paid was the looking price. Lessons are extra.” Sure, you and ninety-nine others get to rub shoulders with one or two names. That must make you feel more knowledgeable. Just like catching a disease!

Isn’t that a bit hard? Well, there’s no real chance for one-to-one or small group sessions. It’s all going to be “talk and show” not the detailed coaching needed for personal improvement. Forgive me for doubting two days are going to produce a major skill improvement. They’ll give you a few tips like, “When he twitches, that’s a tell, OK.” To come out ahead on this, those suckers need to earn back the fee of $1,499 plus travel, hotel and living expenses. How fast are they all going to do that? One or two who had the flair will probably get the confidence to go on to better things, but most will be there just for the bragging rights. Those guys want some of that fame to rub off on them. 

Except I keep coming back to this celebrity thing. ESPN are making this big fuss about the WSOP tournament and I bet, when one of the Academy alumni does well, you’ll be the first hear about it. But away from the public view, the bread-and-butter cash games go on in clubs around the country. You don’t get to hear so much about that. So which version of the game’s a better test of real skill? And which version are they teaching in these Academy sessions?

I guess if you line people up against the wall and ask their opinion, most will say the cash game is better because it’s head-to-head. When you play for higher stakes, you’ll be up against better than average players and sometimes a few professionals. Everyone’s trying to get the maximum value out of every hand dealt whilst they’re ahead. Those that get behind play a bit more conservative to keep their losses down until they build their chip pile back up. In a tournament, you’re out once you lose all your chips. So the strategy is to wait out the opposition by playing steady percentages. Because anyone with the entry fee can sit down to play, you get a lot of amateurs in a tournament like the current WSOP event. Beating them is just a case of profiting from their mistakes. This strategy doesn’t work so well in a high stakes game against the sharks. You actually need to be able to play the whole game to beat them.

So good luck to all playing in this year’s event! Good luck to the hundreds graduating from the Academy events! It’s always good to see a game played well whether you’re an amateur or a professional.

When the Wizard of Oz warns, “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.” Dorothy is right on the money with, “Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas any more.” Back in the real world it’s all the wrong way round.

Have you been following the casino news in Kansas? The powers-that-be over there are about to award the licenses for operating state-owned casinos in Sumner and Cherokee Counties (decision due later this month) and Ford and Wyandotte Counties (decision due in September).

Why all the excitement?

Well, the doom-and-gloom mongers say an economic recession is coming. Whether it hits in its full glory, state tax revenues are already falling along with property values. So Kansas is making a speculative grab for $200m a year from projected gambling proceeds to help pay the bills. Speculative because if a recession does come, no-one knows how many people will keep gambling with their hard-earned cash. My money says all real world casino revenues will fall so Kansas won’t get what it expects. But, hey, apart from the math teachers to show the next generation how to work out statistics and probabilities to make them better gamblers, who needs teachers, police officers, firemen, etc. Tax increases anyone? Now you would think political and economic  fear would push Kansas into fast action. But it’s turned into a year-long contest, making it as exciting as watching paint dry (or not, depending on your point of view).

In Sumner County, we’re into the final straight and down to a three-horse race between Harrah’s Entertainment Inc., Marvel Gaming and Penn National Gaming Inc. Penn is now the sole bidder in Cherokee County which could mean Penn is the winner, but as always, it’s more complicated than that. MGM Mirage withdrew because of problems with its proposal to build in Mulvane. Lawyers got in on the act (now there’s a surprise). Wellington is competing for the casinos to be built in their fair town. It sued Mulvane alleging improper annexation of land for use as casinos. Las Vegas Sands also recently withdrew from the contest giving two reasons:

• Missouri is changing its loss-limit law which may keep more customers “at home”; and
• over the July 4th weekend, the Quapaw Tribe of Oklahoma opened the Downstream Casino Resort just off I44 on the intersection of the borders between Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri — this has increased the competition.

Penn agrees the Quapaw development has tilted the “playing field” in the tribe’s favor. First off, their casino is already open, whereas the Kansas development is at least two years away. Worse, the tribe doesn’t have to pay all the corporate and federal income taxes (it’s good being in the tribe business these days). All this extra money promotes the site and builds customer loyalty. So Penn says it will only proceed if it gets both licenses. As good a case of economic strong-arming (that’s a legal form of blackmail) as you can get.

The Lottery Gaming Facility Review Board decides August 21-22 who gets the single 15-year contract in each county, so how about a little gambling. In Cherokee County it’s a 50:50 bet between Penn the winner and Penn withdrawing/no contract awarded. In Sumner County it’s three possible winners and no award.

So what’s the form of the other two bidders?

Harrah’s is the biggest casino operator in the world (even though it didn’t win the bidding in Singapore). It has a good track record, but a lot of debt which isn’t quite so good if the U.S. does head into a recession. More importantly, it was planning to build in Mulvane, so is caught up in the litigation by Wellington (doncha just love those lawyers).

Marvel Gaming is a new company but with money in the bank. It’s owned by the Binion family which had casino holdings in Las Vegas and across the country until it sold out to Harrah’s for $1.5 billion in 2004. Now it’s  looking to reinvest a part of the sale price in new casinos. So small is nimble (ironically using Harrah’s money against Harrah’s).

You pays your money and takes your chance. What say you all? Who’s going to win? I’m waiting for the wizard tipster to give me the inside dope, but feel free to use the comment slot below to make your bets.

Coincidence is one of the devils in gambling. There’s a terrible temptation when several different things all happen around the same time. You think your luck’s in, it’s a hot streak, and so on. Perhaps you ignore the whole “statistical independence” thing and play one of the gambling systems. Maybe you’ve put superstition behind you and play the odds. But, for now, let’s just sit back with this first post and think about how luck can help a writer. For the record, I’m supposed to write about something that’s just happened — it must be fresh meat.

If you browse through the list of casinos on this site, you’ll come to the Amelia Belle Casino at 69 (you’ve got to feel sorry for the casino drawing 69 because it’s just another place and way to get f@@@ed but, hey, it’s only weird old guys like me associate numbers with sex). The management of the casino has just celebrated their first birthday (actually it was May 16 for the opening and May 18 for the official launch — it’s a riverboat, after all) but work with me on this, OK — we writers have to make our own luck.

So, how come a riverboat casino (not quite old enough to have Huck Finn in its history) is celebrating its first anniversary? Well, this floating crap game used to be called Bally’s. It was moored at the South Shore Harbor marina on Lake Pontchartrain in eastern New Orleans. Then the wind got up some as Katrina paid a visit. This broke the old “vessel” up and put her in for repairs.

But Katrina wasn’t done with her. While she was under repair, The Orleans Levee District tried to seize the her for nonpayment of rent. Greed (like gambling) can do terrible things to people. The original lease made the rent payable even if the Belle went down to Davy Jones’ Locker Room for a workout with the guys. Then, the lawyers woke up. When you’re on a contingency fee, you claim for every last cent. The complaint was amended to demand $20.6m in unpaid rent, $1.6m in unpaid fees, and $1.5m in damages because, when the wind came, the Belle rubbed up against the marina where she was moored and did some damage there (doncha just love the creativity of lawyers). While they were all fighting, the repairs were done, there was a change in ownership and a new name, and she moved up to Bayou Boeuf, located on Lake Palourde Road, St. Mary Parish.

So Friday, July 25 (finally a date to justify this blog post) saw the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals throw out the case. The reason? The judges thought the Belle was a “vessel” (like it could move through the water under its own power) but those clever marina lawyers had written a lease for land structures. There’s a funny thing about vessels. They need a maritime lease. The moral of this post? Lawyers who work for marinas obviously need a quick update on boat recognition — four wheels = automobile; one big wheel at back = riverboat.

All of which produced a major birthday celebration for the Amelia Belle Casino. The owners have created employment for some 400 locals and have paid the first two instalments of $1.5m under their ten year deal with the St. Mary Parish government. Yeh, yeh, talking of jobs and taxes is boring. The more important number is that, in its first year of operation, the casino had 1.1m customers walk up the plank into the vessel (marina lawyers walk the plank the pirate way). So, if you like the old world charm of a New Orleans riverboat, you should pay them a visit and join in the fun — BBQing marina lawyers every weekend.